Spanish possession meets Messi magic: Tactical trends ahead of the World Cup final

Spain

Possession dominance

It’s nothing new - La Roja simply try to dominate the match by keeping possession. It’s logical: an opponent without the ball poses no threat. Of all the teams that reached the round of 16 and played at least five matches, Spain have the highest average possession (63.86%) at the tournament. But this time, their plan might not work, or rather, they’ll have a hard time implementing it. 

Their opponents from Argentina also excel in this area, using a similar strategy. And they’re only slightly less successful at it (with an average possession of 60.72%). So, it might come down to who can win the ball back for themselves.

In this regard, Spain again stand out, boasting the highest success rate in direct ball recoveries from opponents among all 48 teams at the tournament (68.18%). Argentina made the most such attempts (141; Spain is third with 110), but their success rate is much lower. They succeeded in only 56.74% of attempts, ranking just 31st.

With their pressing, Luis de la Fuente’s men can also force opponents into mistakes in other ways, such as disrupting their build-up play. No one has won more balls back than Spain, both in the attacking third (40, Argentina 22) and in midfield (155, Argentina 124). 

"Spain is the best-organised team in the tournament. Among other things, they also have excellent residual defence and are prepared for potential turnovers, so they don’t get caught out on the counter," notes Flashscore's in-house data analyst Marek Kabat.

Structure

Everything revolves around the midfield for Spain, where De la Fuente has opted for a diamond-shaped setup, a system especially popular in the 1990s. However, the Spanish coach has innovated it. His anchor at the back is Rodri, who acts as a progressive holding midfielder, meaning he’s heavily involved in attacking play as well. Above him, in a slightly deeper role, is either Pedri as the playmaker or Fabian Ruiz in matches where his ball-winning ability is more needed.

On the opposite side, the more advanced Dani Olmo operates as a second striker or even as a forward, as does Mikel Merino when used. He knows how to get into the box, as shown by his two winning goals in the round of 16 against Portugal and the following round against Belgium.

At the top of the formation sits Mikel Oyarzabal (or Ferran Torres) as a false nine, drifting between the opponent’s defence and midfield, picking up through balls and creating space up front. A textbook example of that was the goal against Portugal.

The others join in as support. Centre-back Pau Cubarsi pushes high up the pitch and often contributes to the pre-final phase of attacks. His partner Aymeric Laporte also isn't shy in getting involved. Both have made the most vertical passes of anyone at the tournament (Laporte 204, Cubarsi 185).

Since the full-backs play more like midfielders, Spain have the second-highest defensive line at the tournament (after Canada). Their average expected goals against per match is 0.3, and they’ve conceded just one goal all tournament - by far the lowest of any team.

Argentina

Set piece focus

For the defending champions, the final doesn’t look too optimistic if they stick to their usual style. They rarely use high pressing and let their opponents build up play calmly, which plays right into their next opponent’s hands.

However, it’s worth noting that Argentina have utilised different tactical approaches at this tournament, and coach Lionel Scaloni might have a different approach in mind. What Lionel Messi and his teammates can rely on are set pieces, which they’ve executed better than anyone at the tournament.

They’ve scored seven goals from set pieces, and that’s with their leader missing two penalties. He did convert one, while his teammates added four more goals from corners and two from direct free kicks. Argentina have taken the most penalties, scored the most goals from free kicks and corners at the tournament.

Messi is responsible for the corners, delivering 16 into the box - again, the highest team number at the World Cup. His team even outperformed England, who are specialists in this area. But how do they win those set pieces?

"Argentina wait for their opponent in a mid-block and probably won’t press Spain near their own goal. So, they need to find a way to make their mid-block active, aggressive, and compact. From there, Messi and the other attackers can get into dangerous positions in the attacking third," explains Kabat.

Transitional phases

Argentina like to move forward in a consolidated way, with more players and at a slower pace. In terms of ball progression speed, they’re even slower than their final opponents. Despite this, unlike Spain, the Albiceleste don’t stick to just one type of attacking transition. And it's working for them.

Even though they’re not primarily a counter-attacking team, they’ve scored the most goals from counters at the tournament (four). They’ve also had the third highest number of counter-attacks (12), while Spain averages just one quick counter every two matches.

Argentina most often uses the central corridor to move forward. The French and Belgians tried to attack Spain more down the left, behind the advanced Lamine Yamal, but didn’t have much success.

If Messi and Co. want a better outcome, they’ll need to exploit the space left behind by the attacking wing-back Marc Cucurella. In fact, the only goal Spain has conceded at the tournament came from a cross from the right - a challenge for Messi, perhaps.

This is exactly the area where he likes to operate; in the semi-final against England, he delivered two assists from that side. And once again, he saved everything for the end - he and his team are especially strong under pressure.

After the 70th minute, he’s scored 12 of his 19 goals, as if that’s the moment when his relentless style finally wears down the opponent, and he strikes.

Vulnerabilities

Spain

For La Roja, their weakness lies actually in their strongest area - the aforementioned diamond. It’s the engine room, the control centre; without it, the team stalls. And that’s exactly where Argentina have a counter-weapon. If they can limit the influence of Rodri (especially) and his supporting cast, Spain will be in trouble.

Without their general, they played eight matches last season when he was injured and conceded 14 goals. This season, with him on the pitch, they’ve played 11 matches and conceded just once! In other words, no one has managed to take out Spain’s control centre with its leader.

Argentina might be able to do it. They also have a very strong unit in midfield, led by Leandro Paredes. After returning home from Europe, he faded from the spotlight a bit and played only eight minutes in the first two matches of the tournament. But in the knockout stages, he's become an indispensable part of the lineup, helping in defence and starting attacks.

Along with centre-backs Lisandro Martinez (7.8) and Cristian Romero (7.6), he has the best average rating on Flashscore (7.8) after Messi.

Argentina

Lionel Scaloni’s team has struggled defensively at this tournament. They’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in five straight matches, even conceding to one of the tournament’s weakest teams, Jordan, and twice against both Egypt and Cape Verde in the knockout stages.

Partly, Argentina has been unlucky (according to their expected goals against, they’ve let in three more than they should have), but their goalkeeper also hasn’t been performing well.

Emiliano Martinez was named the best goalkeeper at the last World Cup, but this year he’s fallen far short. In the matches against Egypt and Jordan, he didn’t make a single save and picked the ball out of his net three times.

His save percentage of 56.25% ranks him just 38th among goalkeepers at the tournament, while Spain’s Unai Simon is way ahead (90%). Simon has conceded just once all tournament, while his final opponent has let in seven and has prevented 1.5 fewer goals than he should have.

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