Match News and Current Form
The Springboks and All Blacks ditched the previously annual Rugby Championship for New Zealand’s first full tour of the rainbow nation in 30 years. Billed as the ‘Greatest Rivalry’ series and set to take place every four years, these sides will go head-to-head not only as the 2023 World Cup finalists but as the top-two ranked nations in the world, with a series win for the All Blacks enough to see them reclaim their place at the top of the rankings for the first time since August 2025. Only points difference separates them at the top of the new Nations Championship after they both went undefeated with three bonus point wins, leaving nothing but the advantage of South Africa’s six-game winning streak at home to separate them.
Head coach Rassie Erasmus, famous for the South African ‘bomb squad’ that was expected by some to overwhelm the All Blacks after half-time, raised plenty of eyebrows this week when he picked a 5-3 bench instead of the usual 7-1 or even 6-2 that Springboks fans have grown accustomed to. There was no room at all for 2023 World Cup final winner Handrè Pollard, with playmaking duties handed to Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu and understudy Manie Libbok.
There were plenty of concerns for New Zealand when they plummeted to an all-time low of fifth in the World Rugby rankings after a 26-10 loss to South Africa in Mbombela four years ago, but they have held their own in each of their last three games away to the Springboks. Dave Rennie has not been afraid to join in the mind games that has helped immensely with the marketing of the series and his team have been getting better throughout the tour, putting up half-centuries against both the Sharks and Bulls after a sluggish performance in a 38-21 win over the Stormers that would have been nowhere near good enough for the internationals.
The All Blacks have been quite vulnerable away from home in recent years, albeit under previous coaches Ian Foster and Scott Robertson, losing to England, France and even Argentina across their last nine away games against other national teams. Rennie has had to contend with some significant injuries on this tour, sending home no fewer than four players, but he would have warmly welcomed the news that tour captain Ardie Savea, record try scorer Will Jordan and first choice scrumhalf Cam Roigard were all cleared as recovered from their injuries this week. The three have not played on tour so far, and therefore lack match fitness, but all three started in New Zealand’s impressive 40-21 win at home to Ireland. Fabian Holland for Patrick Tuipulotu is the only change made to New Zealand’s starting lineup from that game.
Head-to-Head History
South Africa came out on top in five out of seven H2Hs since the start of 2023, including the infamous World Cup final. On home soil, the Springboks won four of their last five games against the All Blacks, albeit with three winning margins being six points or fewer.
Hot Stats and Streaks
South Africa won six of their last seven games in which they conceded the first try.
The second half was the highest scoring half in 14 of South Africa’s 19 matches since 2025.
New Zealand led at half-time in each of their last nine matches (W8, L1).
The second half was the highest scoring half in nine of New Zealand’s last ten games.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Starting Springboks centre Jesse Kriel skipped the trip to Argentina after scoring in each of their three Nations Championship matches and looms as one of their top try scoring threats. The only other player to score tries in all three rounds of the Nations Championship is starting All Blacks wing Will Jordan, whose rate of 0.30 tries per game against South Africa (three tries in ten matches) is his worst against any single nation!
Springboks captain Siya Kolisi and Ox Nche are South Africa’s two big absentees, whilst Cortez Ratima is New Zealand’s only injury out of those who remain on tour.
Click here to see the latest matchday squads for both teams.
Betting Analysis
The trends of both teams point heavily towards the second half being the highest scoring half.
Aaron Murphy has been with Flashscore since 2018 and, as the founding editor of the Australian newsdesk, has reported on-site at several major events in Melbourne including the Australian Open, State of Origin, A-League, NBL and international cricket. You can read his pieces here and contact him on X or LinkedIn.
