We still can't believe it. Luka Doncic has left the Dallas Mavericks after being shipped off by his franchise. An unlikely outcome, which sees the Slovenian genius land at the Los Angeles Lakers. At the same time, Anthony Davis (AD) is heading to Texas. A real shockwave has erupted through the NBA.
Once we've got past the surprise, we can dive into the aftermath of this swap. On paper, the Doncic - LeBron James pairing is bound to make you salivate, while Davis will form a very interesting outside/inside pairing with Kyrie Irving. We'll have to wait and see who is the real winner of this trade, but in the meantime, it raises a lot of questions.
Luka Doncic and LeBron James - will it work?
Two basketball anomalies, two ultra-complete players - it is something for Lakers fans to dream about. LeBron may be at the end of his career, but he is still turning in 24 points / 9.1 assists / 7.6 rebounds per game and, despite having just turned 40, remains the driving force for the Lakers. But there is one thing that catches the eye.
LeBron is fifth in the rankings for the most career triple-doubles (121) and will have to co-exist with Doncic, who is seventh in the rankings (80). The main question arising from these figures is whether these two players will be able to play together. Now is the time to look at the usage rate, which is the percentage of a team's possessions that a player uses while on the court.
Luka Doncic has the third-highest usage rate in the NBA, and LeBron James the ninth. This means that both players have the ball in their hands a lot, so it's going to have to be shared. Recently, LeBron has already tried to co-exist with a player with a high usage rate - Russell Westbrook.
It was a failure in every aspect, forcing the staff to place the 2017 MVP off the bench to balance the game, which is obviously not going to happen with the Slovenian.
Of course, the defensive aspect is also a cause for concern. Doncic is still regarded as an unskilled defender, and at 40, LeBron is no longer a benchmark in this area. But the onus will be on the staff to put together a starting five capable of balancing out defensively... or else assume that this part of the game will be neglected to focus on the offensive potential of this combination.
Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis: an obvious connection?
Less flashy on paper, this new pairing nevertheless makes sense, logically since it is made up of an outside player and an inside player. But beyond that, the Mavs are getting back one of the best 'fours' in the league, and he himself admits that he is better in that position than as a centre.
It's a good thing he'll likely be paired with Daniel Gafford, a centre who doesn't get a lot of recognition and works quietly, who feeds off what he's given, and who should confine himself to the unglamorous tasks and lets AD do as he pleases.
Defensively, the Mavs will pick up an anchor in this area. Davis has already been a finalist for Defensive Player Of the Year and a three-time NBA All-Defensive First Team player (and twice Second Team). His impact was questionable this season, but during his time with the Lakers, he clearly showed his talent in this area, and the Mavs, who have the 13th-best offensive rating of the season, will take full advantage.
As far as Kyrie Irving is concerned, he will become the Mavs' main ball handler. While his partnership with 'Luka Magic' was fairly effective because of his immense talent in the off-ball game, we've already seen him develop as a playmaker and the individual results are there to see. For example, five of his six career games with at least 50 points came in a scenario where he was the main ball handler. And when it comes to his partnership with AD, the signs are good.
Despite having played for a long time with LeBron and then Doncic, he's averaging 5.6 assists in his career, and more importantly, he's probably never had such a strong interior to serve. The 'pick'n'roll' should therefore become common in Texas, and with two such strong players, the half-court scoring average should increase.
Possible success for Doncic away from Dallas?
As said before, Doncic needs the ball. It's as the main ball handler that he shines, so he's going to have to learn to share. But beyond that, the Slovenian has never played with such a prestigious teammate. Today, he is stronger than LeBron James, but not better known or more renowned.
In Dallas, Luka was the man. The team was built for him, and around him. It was up to him to bring the attack to life and carry the team forward offensively. The proof is in his record of eight wins to 11 losses since injuring his calf in December, but also in the offensive rating.
But of course, Doncic has never played anywhere other than Dallas in the NBA. And above all, he will have to digest this totally unexpected transfer. None of the players in the trade knew about it, and as the main piece, it seems that he has taken it badly. The madness surrounding him in Dallas will be multiplied by two or three, or 10. The lights shine brighter in LA than anywhere else. Will it be a hindrance?
Probably not. Once the disappointment has passed (he never envisaged leaving Dallas, but that's the way the NBA is), he'll undoubtedly be ready. A young star who turned pro at the age of 16 with Real Madrid, he has never shied away from pressure and has lived up to expectations since his arrival in the NBA. Embracing that pressure won't be a problem for 'Luka Magic'.
Mavs and Lakers title contenders?
This swap could reshuffle the deck. The Mavs have undoubtedly gained a more complementary, balanced and solid team... on paper. The fact is that the Mavs' two stars are in their thirties and are often affected by injuries, which is not ideal, especially with Klay Thompson also ageing. But defensively, it could be very important, especially in the play-offs.
As for the Lakers, they now have two of the NBA's biggest stars, which makes sense for one of the league's biggest markets. Economically, this trade is a godsend for the Purple & Gold. Ticket sales, jersey sales, merchandising - all the indicators are going to be on the up.
The Luka and LeBron partnership is also a godsend for the NBA, whose ratings have been on a bit of a knife edge for some time, and there's no doubt that the league will showcase the duo as soon as the Slovenian is ready.
But from a sporting point of view, the Lakers have until Thursday evening to adjust their squad before the trade deadline. The Lakers now have major defensive shortcomings, which they will have to make up for, because as things stand, the starting five is in danger of falling apart defensively, and it's not certain that the attacking talent of its two stars will be enough to compensate every time.
Dallas have less pressure, and the starting five look good. Overall, these two teams have more than enough talent to finish in the top six and qualify directly for the play-offs.
For the title, on the other hand, the Lakers and Mavs can't afford to lose one of their two stars in the post-season. In recent years, it has been the teams that have built and matured, sometimes taking a risk but not as big as this one, that have gone all the way.
The latest example of a trade a few months before the 2019 playoffs resulting in a title is the 2019 Raptors. And again, the arrival of Marc Gasol is nothing compared to this traed. It's a huge risk, and one that will only pay off with at least a final appearance. But it's hard to see the Lakers and Mavs dominating the Thunder, Rockets or even the Nuggets in this highly competitive Western Conference. But we'd love to be proved wrong...
