Even in the ICC Champions Trophy group stage, where the games come fast and teams can ill-afford to lose any match, a second win in a row for either Australia or South Africa in this fixture will still not guarantee their passage to the semi-finals!
But it will put one of them in a very strong position and arguably with one foot in the last four, so Tuesday’s day-night clash in Rawalpindi, which is also a re-run of one of the two 2023 Cricket World Cup semi-finals, has plenty at stake.
It was the green and gold who came out on top in that game at Eden Gardens 15 months ago, getting over the line by three wickets, but South Africa had won all of the previous four H2Hs by at least 110 runs, with those games taking place across two months prior to the semi-final.
Why Australia can win
After coming into this competition off the back of four successive ODI defeats, without all of their ‘big three’ pace bowlers and having failed to win a Champions Trophy match since 2009, Australia’s confidence will be well-boosted after they chased down their target of 352 against England on Saturday with 15 balls remaining!
In the first innings, there were standout performances from Ben Dwarshuis, who took two wickets in the powerplay on his way to returning figures of 3/66 in his first ICC tournament appearance, and Adam Zampa (2/64) with Nathan Ellis the most economical of the attack (0/51).
With the bat, Josh Inglis took the Player of the Match award with 120 not out from 86 balls, and in doing so completed the hat-trick of international centuries (Test, ODI, T20I). He has two in T20Is, including one in Scotland, but the other three have all come in Asia across the last 15 months.
The Aussies will also take confidence that they were able to chase down a target of 350+ with Travis Head and Steve Smith contributing a combined 11 runs!
Why South Africa can win
The Proteas had also seen their pace-bowling resources depleted ahead of the tournament, after injuries had ruled out both Anrich Nortje and Gerald Coetzee, but they were still able to secure a comfortable 107-run victory over Afghanistan in their opener with a fine trio of quicks in Marco Jansen, Lungi Ngidi and Kagiso Rabada.
South Africa had lost all of their previous six ODIs and saw keeper-batter Heinrich Klaasen, who had made four successive scores of 81+ in the format, ruled out on the eve of the game with an elbow injury.
But just like their bowling unit, there is plenty of batting in their squad and Klaasen’s replacement Ryan Rickelton hit 103 with skipper Temba Bavuma, Rassie van der Dussen and Aiden Markram all backing him up with half-centuries.
If recovered in time, Klaasen will only bolster an already strong batting line-up in this game, and South Africa will fancy their chances against the Aussies after winning 15 of their last 19 ODI H2Hs.
Venue and conditions
Ahead of Monday’s Champions Trophy fixture, three of the previous four ODIs at the Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium had been won by the team chasing and the solitary victory by the team batting first came after a tie and a super over!
At the time of writing, the forecast was not overly positive for Tuesday in Rawalpindi with a chance of showers throughout the afternoon and evening. Humidity levels will also be over 60% from start to finish, which could assist bowlers capable of swinging the ball on either side.
Match stats
• Adam Zampa has returned economy rates of between 7.00 and 11.30 across his last four ODIs versus South Africa.
• Ryan Rickelton scored at least 35 runs in four of his last five ODI innings.
• Tony de Zorzi has never failed to make double figures in an ODI innings and posted a strike-rate of 100.00+ in four of his last five.
• Kagiso Rabada vs Josh Inglis in ODIs: 3/16 from 19 balls.
• Josh Inglis averages 18.42 from eight ODI innings against South Africa.