Match News and Current Form
South Africa consolidated their World Cup win in 2023 by capturing the Rugby Championship in 2024 in dominant fashion, leading the pack by eight points at the tournament's conclusion (W5, L1). Both those campaigns contribute to the Springboks having now won 25 of their last 28 matches after a pair of wins over Italy and once-off victory against Georgia in July, with those games being littered with some never before seen tactics cooked up by coach Rassie Erasmus.
Erasmus has returned to the well with regards to his team selection here, picking 18 World Cup winners in his matchday 23, which features just three players with five caps or fewer. Those are forwards Jan-Hendrik Wessels and prop Asenathi Ntlabakanye who both start on the bench, with the other being Edwill van der Merwe who’ll wear the number 14 jersey. The team is captained by Siya Kolisi who unusually starts at eighth man, and he’ll no doubt lean on the experience of the most capped Springbok ever in Eben Etzebeth who runs out for his 134th test.
As for the Aussies, they walked away from their series with the British and Irish Lions with their heads held high, as despite going into every match as heavy underdogs, they ran the best the Northern Hemisphere had to offer close despite losing in the first two tests, before convincingly winning the third. Their goal for this Rugby Championship will be continuous improvement, and to hopefully avoid collecting the wooden spoon for a third successive year, as it’ll be one of the sporting shocks of the year if they ended their decade-long drought to win the tournament.
Coach Joe Schmidt has kept his recent winning formula the same by naming just one change to the side that beat the British and Irish Lions last time out, but what a change that is, with 34-year old James O’Connor pulling on the Wallabies number ten jersey for the first time since August 2022. The side is also captained by their eighth man in the physical Harry Wilson, who will have plenty of experience in front rower James Slipper, lock Will Skelton, scrumhalf Nic White, and fullback Tom Wright to lean on should he need.
Head-to-Head History
The Springboks are gunning for a fifth successive win over Australia for the first time in over half a century, while also protecting their perfect record against them at Ellis Park (W6). Overall the two teams have met 95 times, with South Africa winning 52, Australia winning 40, and three draws being played out.
Hot Stats and Streaks
South Africa scored more of their points before half-time in seven of their last nine games.
South Africa scored 42+ points in each of their last five home matches.
Australia’s opening try came from a winger or fullback in six of their last eight games.
The Wallabies have got on the scoreboard first in four of their last five away matches.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Kurt-Lee Arendse will take some stopping from crossing the whitewash here, since his two past appearances against Australia have yielded five tries for the pacy winger. Across from him will be Aussie speedster Max Jorgensen, who is fine try scoring form having dotted down twice during the Lions series.
Springbok centre Damian de Allende has been said to be carrying a niggle and sit this week out, while Cheslin Kolbe has been given extra time to rest. For the Aussies, O’Connor’s recall was due to an injury for Tom Lynagh, who picked up a concussion.
Betting Analysis
Both teams will be keen to get off to a winning start more than anything, and with four of the last five H2Hs ending under the pre-match points line, betting that market once again seems the right play.