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How a below par Borussia Dortmund can surprise dominant Bayern Munich in Der Klassiker

Bayern Munich manager, Vincent Kompany, and Borussia Dortmund counterpart, Niko Kovac.
Bayern Munich manager, Vincent Kompany, and Borussia Dortmund counterpart, Niko Kovac.ČTK / imago sportfotodienst / Frank Hoermann/SVEN SIMON
Saturday afternoon sees one of the great European football games taking place - Der Klassiker.

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund is the Bundesliga's creme de la creme, and much like with the Manchester derby, the Derby della Madonnina, El Derbi Madrileno or El Clasico, the world of football comes to a standstill for 90 minutes.

It will be the 137th meeting between the German football giants since the Bundesliga was founded, and no other fixture has been played as often in German professional football. 

Some might be surprised by the fact that the Bavarians have suffered more defeats to BVB than against any other side (33, most recently 2-0 in March 2024).

What's more, they are currently winless in consecutive matches against Dortmund for the first time since 2017 (D1, L1).

Bayern Munich will be full of confidence ahead of Der Klassiker

However, Bayern will be going into this weekend's test full of confidence. 

They top the table by six points from Leverkusen, whilst Niko Kovac's side are somewhat marooned down in eighth position and currently out of the European spots.

Though Dortmund's 4-0 humbling at Barcelona during midweek will have stung them it could potentially work in their favour for Der Klassiker.

Kovac's players shouldn't need extra motivation in any event, but with the Champions League tie done and dusted, putting everything into the league fixture makes sense. 

There can be no logical reason for Dortmund to be 'saving' players for the return against Barca as only the Catalans themselves have turned around a four-goal first-leg loss (6-1 v PSG in 2017) in the entirety of European Cup/Champions League history.

With games running out in the Bundesliga - just five more after Saturday, of which Dortmund are at home in three - every point counts now.

Bundesliga table as at April 11th, 2025.
Bundesliga table as at April 11th, 2025.Flashscore

The visitors should be encouraged by the fact that they're unbeaten in their last four Bundesliga games against league leaders (W1, D3), currently the longest such run of all top-flight teams and Dortmund’s longest since a five-game stretch from 2009 to 2013.

Furthermore, they've picked up 12 points from their last six Bundesliga games (W4, D2).

A 3-1 win over Mainz and a 4-1 victory at Freiburg means that Dortmund have scored at least three goals in two consecutive Bundesliga games for the first time this season, too. 

Since Kovac took over at the start of February, no other Bundesliga team has taken as many shots (147) or had as high an xG (20.8) either.

In fact, there'll never be a better opportunity for the 53-year-old, who is the only man to have ever won the double as both a player and coach with Bayern - to break his duck against his former club. The Bavarians are the only side he is still winless against as a coach in the Bundesliga (D1, L7). 

Serhou Guirassy remains key to Dortmund's aspirations

Although Guirassy was off colour against Barcelona, he's the German top-flight’s top goalscorer in the second half of the season (eight goals).

The Guinean has already scored more goals in 10 matches since the midway mark than he did in 14 games in the first half of the season (seven).

He's closely followed by Bayern's Harry Kane (seven), who has had a hand in two goals in three separate matches in the second half of the season, a league high together with Maximilian Beier - who has been directly involved in two goals in a game for the first time in Dortmund's colours (two goals, two assists).

Bayern Munich's Harry Kane in action during the Champions League match between against Inter
Bayern Munich's Harry Kane in action during the Champions League match between against InterIPA, Independent Photo Agency Srl / Alamy / Profimedia

It isn't just Kane that BVB need to keep an eye on either.

Michael Olise has recorded a league-high 10 assists in the Bundesliga this season, and since detailed data collection began in 2004/05 only James Rodriguez has ever set up as many top-flight goals in a debut campaign for Bayern (11 in 2017/18).

Bayern are clearly in top form, having acquired 13 points from their last five games (W4, D1), whilst 68 points from 28 games represents their best Bundesliga season in seven years (69 points in 2017/18).

All seven Bayern teams to have previously had at least 68 points from the first 28 matchdays went on to win the title.

Dortmund's mentality will be key to a positive result at the Allianz Arena

Therefore, it's a tall order for Dortmund to win this edition of Der Klassiker for a number of reasons, but a positive result certainly isn't beyond them.

Die Schwarzgelben are unbeaten in the last two and haven't lost in three out of the last five fixtures against Bayern.

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund head-to-head
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund head-to-headFlashscore

They'll need to get their passing game going in order to dominate when in possession of the ball, and to that end, the loss of Nico Schlotterbeck for the next six months or so is the cruellest of blows.

However, Niklas Sule (93.5% pass accuracy), Almugera Kabar (91.6.%), Waldemar Anton (91.4%), Julian Ryerson (90.1%), and captain, Emre Can (90.8%), can keep things ticking over in that respect.

Arguably, Dortmund need to be able to take their chances as and when they get them - and they will - because Bayern have kept just four clean sheets in the last 12 games in all competitions, and three of those were against Bayer Leverkusen.

Perhaps the one overriding issue on the day will actually be Dortmund's mentality. They can't afford to allow themselves to be overwhelmed by the occasion and, as in so many big games previously, they choke.

Take the game to their hosts just as Union Berlin, Bochum and Feyenoord did recently and Bayern can be held or beaten. 

Even bottom-placed Holsten Kiel managed to score three at the Allianz Arena this season...

Jason Pettigrove
Jason PettigroveFlashscore