Mer

The numbers behind Borussia Dortmund's attempts to save their season against Lille

Borussia Dortmund's Karim Adeyemi battles with Lille's Ayyoub Bouaddi during the Champions League Round of 16 first leg tie.
Borussia Dortmund's Karim Adeyemi battles with Lille's Ayyoub Bouaddi during the Champions League Round of 16 first leg tie.ČTK / imago sportfotodienst / Moritz Mueller
Less than a year ago, Borussia Dortmund defied the odds to step out at Wembley Stadium in the Champions League final against Real Madrid.

Until Dani Carvajal opened the scoring on 74 minutes for Los Blancos, Die Schwarzgelben had their chances, most notably from Karim Adeyemi, but ultimately it wasn't to be. 

A fifth-placed Bundesliga finish - 27 points behind eventual champions Bayer Leverkusen - was as good as it got, and such a cavernous gap domestically was always going to lead to a change on the bench, Edin Terzic doing the decent thing and resigning before he was pushed.

Undoubtedly in the hope of retaining some sort of continuity at BVB, the hierarchy decided that Terzic's assistant and ex-Dortmund legend, Nuri Sahin, would be the man to take the club forward in 2024/25.

It quickly became clear that such a decision lacked the necessary foresight and after being knocked out of the German Cup as well as being unable to restore the squad to the level expected, Sahin was relieved of his duties in late January.

His replacement, Niko Kovac, certainly has his work cut out and the current Bundesliga table makes for awful reading.

With 25 games played, Dortmund have both won and lost 10, drawing five. Incredibly, they find themselves way down in 10th position and are already 26 points behind leaders Bayern Munich.

It's relatively easy to pinpoint where their problems begin and end too, given that a squad average of just 114.5kms covered per Bundesliga game this season is the second worst output in the German top-flight.

Only Bochum's players run less, and that's a damning statistic for anyone of a yellow and black persuasion.

Nico Kovac after taking over as first team head coach at Borussia Dortmund
Nico Kovac after taking over as first team head coach at Borussia DortmundOpta by Stats Perform

Wednesday night's Champions League Round of 16 second leg game against Lille takes on extra significance for the club because the success of their entire season almost certainly rests on how far the Germans can now go in this season's competition.

Only a point separated Dortmund from the Ligue 1 side in the UCL league stage, with both winning five of their eight games.

In the first leg of this tie there wasn't an awful lot to separate the sides either, though Lille will be wondering how they didn't emerge triumphant. 

Dortmund had their fewest shots on target (one), their lowest possession in a Champions League game this season (43.1%), the lowest xG (0.27) and it was also their only game without creating a big chance.

Borussia Dortmund vs Lille Champions League Round of 16 first leg match stats
Borussia Dortmund vs Lille Champions League Round of 16 first leg match statsOpta by Stats Perform

The records will show that despite such a poor 90 minutes, Dortmund are still in with a chance of going through, and even if Lille are scenting blood, the fact is that they have only won one of their 10 major European meetings with German clubs (D5 L4).

All three games played against Dortmund previously have always ended in draws too, so we could see the lottery of penalties decide who gets to take on Barcelona.

Lille's Jonathan David will be key to whether the hosts reach the Champions League quarter-finals for the first time in their history, with the 25-year-old having been involved in eight goals in his last eight UCL appearances (six goals, two assists). Domestically he's been on fire with only Ousmane Dembele (20) and Mason Greenwood (15) plundering more goals than David's 14.

The pattern of this game is also likely to depend on the influence that Dortmund's Nico Schlotterbeck has across the 90 minutes.

He has been a consistently welcome presence in BVB's defence this season, and if he manages to make at least 36 completed passes in this game, the defender will have made the most on record in a single UCL campaign since records began (2003/04). Ruben Dias with 907 in the 2022/23 season holds that particular record with Schlotterbeck currently on 872 and counting.

The figures above would also appear to evidence that Dortmund have been up against it in a lot of games, so Kovac will understand that his team may well need to suffer some more if they are to progress.

Karim Adeyemi had Borussia Dortmund's only shot on target in the first leg against Lille
Karim Adeyemi had Borussia Dortmund's only shot on target in the first leg against LilleOpta by Stats Perform

In Serhou Guirassy, the visitors also have a potent front man, with four goals and two assists for the club in their UCL away matches this season, only bettered by Erling Haaland's five goals and two assists for Dortmund in 2020/21.

BVB have won their last two away games in the Champions League knockout stages (1-0 v PSG in last season's semi-finals and 3-0 v Sporting in this season's play-off), though they've never managed three consecutive away wins in the knockout rounds of the competition. 

In six out of seven instances in major European knock-out ties when they've drawn the first leg they've been eliminated too, giving further encouragement to the hosts.

In Nico Kovac, however, Dortmund do have a lucky charm.

In seven away games in the Champions League whilst managing German teams he's never lost. Four wins and two draws with Bayern Munich and one win with Dortmund places him behind only Louis van Gaal (14), Pep Guardiola/Erik ten Hag (both 11) in this regard.

Although Lille have won three of their four home games in the competition this season, that's as many. as they'd managed in the previous 22 UCL home matches (D11, L8), and if Dortmund have got the bit between their teeth because they have a point to prove, that could tip the balance in their favour.

Jason Pettigrove
Jason PettigroveFlashscore