On Sunday, March 16th, the Carabao Cup Final will take place at Wembley between Liverpool and Newcastle United. Liverpool are the bookies' favourite to win, and, based on stats and form, they are the logical favourite. But Newcastle have a real chance to turn their winning dreams into reality and take their first bit of domestic silverware since 1955 back to Tyneside.
Liverpool’s strengths
It is arguably too easy to look at this fixture and say Liverpool will win the Carabao Cup again. Liverpool are the reigning champions, have won the cup in two of the last three years, and are the most successful club in the competition’s history with 10 titles. They have been here and done it before.
Outside of the Carabao Cup, the Reds are at the top of the Premier League and have only lost five times this season in all competitions. Then there are their statistics directly against Newcastle. This season, they have a win and a draw registered against the Magpies, with the win coming only two weeks ago. Over a longer period, Liverpool are unbeaten against Newcastle in 17 games, last losing to them back in 2015.
This is not just any Liverpool that Newcastle will be facing on Sunday but a well-oiled machine that has dominated the Premier League this season under Arne Slot. Their approach under Slot sees a more controlled, patient and balanced team that triggers tempo shifts in their play when they see vulnerability in their opponents. Despite all this, there truly is hope for Newcastle.
Newcastle's deputising players
Let’s dream for a minute. Newcastle have won the Carabao Cup, but how? Despite missing key players for the final - Anthony Gordon and Lewis Hall - the team has understudies who can flourish in their new roles. One would predict that Tino Livramento will play at left-back, tasked with quelling Mohammed Salah. One thing that works for Livramento in this situation is that he is right-footed, meaning he will be facing Salah with his favourable foot when the Egyptian cuts in to take chances on his left.
Harvey Barnes will probably be the deputy for Gordon, and despite not hitting the same strides, has scored five goals in all competitions from an xG of 3.93. Barnes has the ability to score from improbable chances, quite like his winning goal against Wolves at Molineux earlier this season. If these factors work in Newcastle’s favour, then they have a chance.
Newcastle’s key players
Newcastle may not need to rely on such moments of improbable beauty because in Alexander Isak, they have one of the best strikers in the Premier League, if not the world. In Newcastle’s 3-3 draw against Liverpool back in December, Isak was one of the best players on the pitch, running Virgil van Dijk ragged, scoring and providing an assist. He scored in his last two games against Liverpool and has 22 goals in all competitions this season.
Isak having a good game is key to winning the cup, as this was one thing the team were lacking when they last made the Carabao Cup final in 2022/23. In that final Newcastle lost to Manchester United with their proficiency infront of goal lacking. Their momentum in the league was slowing at that time, and Callum Wilson started instead of Isak. This time around, Newcastle may not go in on the best of form but are still scoring, something they hope to continue here.
Outside of Isak, there is the dynamic trio in midfield of Bruno Guimaraes, Sandro Tonali and Joelinton. With the three of them playing this time against Liverpool, Newcastle can enact their true aggressive and combatative play style with the ability to run with the ball and provide match-changing passes. This trio has the quality to run the Liverpool team to their limit, especially a Liverpool team that will be exhausted by their midweek exploits.
A weakened Liverpool
A tired team is a weak team, so not only is the 120 minutes that Liverpool have in their legs from their Champions League loss something that will give Newcastle hope, but how PSG played against them over the two ties would encourage them. It exposed a weakness in Liverpool’s midfield as the PSG wingers dropped into the middle and overloaded those spaces to pull Liverpool players out of position, creating space prime for counterattacks. This is something Newcastle are completely capable of exploiting.
Liverpool will also be working with a depleted defense, losing Trent Alexander-Arnold on Tuesday and potentially Ibrahima Konate. With Joe Gomez and Conor Bradley both already out, there is a possibility that defensive midfielder Waturu Endo will have to play centre-back, with Jarell Quansah as right-back. That weakened defence will imbue Isak and co with confidence.
Newcastle's mentality
Not being favourites can work best for Eddie Howe’s men. Howe has established an 'us vs them' mentality in his team and support, which is emphasised by going into the game as prime underdogs. The narrative of the underdog helps a team like Newcastle ride the waves of support their supporters give, something the Geordie faithful have in abundance.
We have numerous examples of this, but none more so recently than in the Champions League last season and a famous win against PSG at St James’s Park. Then there is the loss in this exact game to Manchester United two seasons ago, which can provide motivation for the players, none of whom would want to experience that heartache again.
Odds for Liverpool vs Newcastle
We started speaking of how Liverpool are the bookmakers' favourite to win, with bet365 having a Reds win down as 13/20 to win in 90 minutes. Underdogs Newcastle are down at 15/4 to win in 90 minutes.
But Newcastle have an opportunity to turn their dreams into reality and whatever happens you cannot see them going down without a fight.