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Opta probabilities: Liverpool out of title race, Palace in Champions League contention

Ryan Gravenberch reacts during Liverpool's costly defeat to Man City on Sunday
Ryan Gravenberch reacts during Liverpool's costly defeat to Man City on SundayČTK / imago sportfotodienst / Mark Cosgrove/News Images

What are the chances of Newcastle qualifying for the Champions League or Sunderland winning the title? Can Liverpool defend their crown and could Crystal Palace qualify for the Champions League?

Using Opta data, Flashscore has compiled the probability of each team winning the Premier League, qualifying for the Champions League or Europa League, as well as being relegated to the Championship in the 2025/26 season.

Liverpool's chances of being crowned back-to-back champions are shrinking every week, and the Reds have been given a mere 7.39% chance of lifting the title in May after their thumping defeat to Man City on Sunday.

Arsenal remain clear favourites (64.86%) despite conceding a late goal to draw at Sunderland, who in turn have seen their odds on returning to the Championship shrink to 7.41% after a thrilling start to the season.

Crystal Palace should be in the mix for European places come the end of the season with a 21.27% chance of finishing in the top four, while at the bottom end of the table, it looks bleak for Wolves who have a 90.49% likelihood of being relegated after spending eight seasons in the top flight.

Leeds (51.80%) and Burnley (50.28%) appear set to join them, with Nottingham Forest and West Ham expected to steer clear.

Scroll down below to see how each Premier League team fares after matchday 11.

Qualifying for the Europa Conference League depends on other factors, including winning the EFL Cup, so it has not been included below.

Arsenal

Current position: 1st

Champions: 64.86%

Champions League: 97.10% 

Europa League: 1.57%

Relegation: 0%

Man City

Current position: 2nd

Champions: 21.90%  

Champions League: 86.41%    

Europa League: 5.54%

Relegation: 0%

Chelsea 

Current position: 3rd

Champions: 2.85%  

Champions League: 40.79%   

Europa League: 13.65% 

Relegation: 0.02%

Sunderland

Current position: 4th

Champions: 0% 

Champions League: 0.77%  

Europa League: 0.91%

Relegation: 7.41%

Tottenham

Current position: 5th

Champions: 0.14%

Champions League: 9.69% 

Europa League: 7.03%

Relegation: 0.51%

Aston Villa

Current position: 6th

Champions: 1.18%  

Champions League: 27.39%

Europa League: 12.70% 

Relegation: 0.06%

Man Utd

Current position: 7th

Champions: 0.33%

Champions League: 12.20%

Europa League: 7.89%

Relegation: 0.44%

Liverpool

Current position: 8th

Champions: 7.39%

Champions League: 66.02% 

Europa League: 10.93%

Relegation: 0% 

Bournemouth

Current position: 9th

Champions: 0.26% 

Champions League: 11.15% 

Europa League: 7.72% 

Relegation: 0.40%

Crystal Palace

Current position: 10th

Champions: 0.63% 

Champions League: 21.27% 

Europa League: 11.39%   

Relegation: 0.22%

Brighton

Current position: 11th

Champions: 0.32%

Champions League: 11.83%

Europa League: 7.63%   

Relegation: 0.45%

Brentford

Current position: 12th

Champions: 0.05%

Champions League: 6.83% 

Europa League: 5.71% 

Relegation: 1.05%

Everton

Current position: 13th

Champions: 0.02%    

Champions League: 1.58% 

Europa League: 1.55%

Relegation: 4.98%

Newcastle

Current position: 14th

Champions: 0.07% 

Champions League: 6.49%    

Europa League: 5.14% 

Relegation: 1.23%

Fulham

Current position: 15th

Champions: 0% 

Champions League: 0.37%   

Europa League: 0.41%

Relegation: 15.28%

Leeds

Current position: 16th

Champions: 0%

Champions League: 0%

Europa League: 0.03%

Relegation: 51.80%

Burnley

Current position: 17th

Champions: 0%

Champions League: 0.01%  

Europa League: 0.05%

Relegation: 50.28%

West Ham

Current position: 18th

Champions: 0%

Champions League: 0.07%

Europa League: 0.06%

Relegation: 39.91%

Nottingham Forest

Current position: 19th

Champions: 0% 

Champions League: 0.03%

Europa League: 0.09%   

Relegation: 35.47%

Wolves

Current position: 20th

Champions: 0% 

Champions League: 0% 

Europa League: 0% 

Relegation: 90.49%