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Why Argentina's recent performances have set Lionel Messi up for more World Cup success

Argentina line up before a World Cup 2026 Qualifier at La Bombonera
Argentina line up before a World Cup 2026 Qualifier at La BomboneraNéstor J. Beremblum / Alamy / Profimedia
Back in December 2022, Lionel Messi and the Argentina squad finally ended 36 years of World Cup hurt by landing football's biggest prize after an epic final against France.

Billed in some quarters as the Messi vs Mbappe show, for once the headline makers and supporting cast came to the fore on the biggest stage and produced 120 minutes of sheer football magic.

The Frenchman can certainly feel aggrieved at finishing on the losing side after scoring the first hat-trick in a World Cup final since Sir Geoff Hurst managed to do so for England at Wembley Stadium in July 1966.

In the lead-up to the Qatar showpiece, La Albiceleste had made their intentions clear with a win over Brazil in the 2021 Copa America final. It was the first time they'd secured a title victory in that tournament since 1993.

They've since gone on to win the 2024 Copa America, this time against Colombia, and are already sitting pretty at the top of the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying table.

With 12 games played in their campaign to date, they've racked up eight wins, one draw and three losses, and their 25 points already puts them 12 clear of Bolivia in the seventh, playoff, place for the 2026 tournament.

Argentina recent results in World Cup Qualifying
Argentina recent results in World Cup QualifyingFlashscore

Unless there is a collapse of never-before-seen proportions, Argentina will be defending their title in just over a year's time.

For the first time since 1994, the glittering showpiece will be held mainly in North America, with Mexico and Canada hosting selected games, and Messi's move to Inter Miami will surely prove to have been a masterstroke when it comes to marketing and ensuring the locals buy tickets.

World Cup 2026 could provide a fine bookend to Messi's career

La Pulga has raised the bar again in MLS with stadiums sold out wherever he plays and it's not unfair to say that he's taken the game there to a whole new level. Not bad when you consider the impact of David Beckham, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Wayne Rooney and Thierry Henry et al.

Given that the tournament could also provide a fine bookend to Messi's stellar football career there's sure to be sold-out crowds wherever Argentina are playing, but have they got what it takes to go all the way and provide a fairytale ending for a player who many believe is the best to have ever played the game?

As might be expected, the captain and No.10 is leading the way in qualifying where he's scored six goals and provided three assists, both squad highs and coming in just the nine games in which he has participated.

Encouragingly, of the 21 total goals scored they have been spread around, with another eight players - including strikers Lautaro Martinez and Julian Alvarez - finding the net.

Lionel Messi lifts the FIFA World Cup trophy in Qatar.
Lionel Messi lifts the FIFA World Cup trophy in Qatar.Nick Potts, PA Images / Alamy / Profimedia

What's very interesting to note about Argentina in qualifying isn't just the goals scored - at least four more than any of the 10 countries in the group - but their shot conversion rate.

For example, Messi's 65.2% accuracy is again the best of the bunch, whilst Lautaro's 50% statistic for a one-in-two shot conversion is also decent. Alvarez again features high up in this metric with 46.7%. 

What those figures show is there's little wastefulness when it comes to Argentina's frontmen taking a strike at goal, and if their colleagues can up their own accuracy, it's clear that the team will score with more shots than they miss.

If there's one area where the national team have continued to improve too it's in their passing. 

Nicolas Otamendi is the heavy hitter in terms of amount of passes played during qualifying. A huge 950 made with a pass completion success of 91.2%, coupled with Cristian Romero's 637 (92.6% accuracy) and Nicolas Tagliafico's 515 (87.2%), evidences a defensive solidity from which others can build.

Dominance in midfield has also become a feature of Argentina's play with Enzo Fernandez's 896 passes (89.6% accuracy) just ahead of Rodrigo De Paul's 869 (87.6%) and Alexis Mac Allister's 505 (89.9%).

Only two players have dipped below 80% accuracy, and Messi's contribution also stands out here given how important he is in other aspects. 416 passes made with an 80.5% success rate is a more than reasonable contribution.

Argentina might have to find another way of winning

If there are two areas that La Albiceleste need to improve upon, it's their success in duels with their direct opponents and the loss of possession. 

Whilst they're not shy at putting their foot in when needed it's rare that Argentina have come out on top in this respect of late, and that's undoubtedly why they've received only 12 yellow cards in total in qualifying.

Only German Pezzella and Lautaro have a tackling success rate of more than 70% and with every other country gunning for their crown and wanting to disrupt their natural game, Lionel Scaloni and his backroom staff need to get the players to understand that it's all very well playing those pretty passing triangles but occassionally there is a need for a different way of winning - within the laws of the game of course.

In terms of keeping possession, all of Messi, De Paul, Alvarez and Fernandez have lost the ball over 100 times in qualification so far, and if they're unable to bring that figure down significantly, it could be their downfall at the World Cup.

However, with Messi having an xG of 4.27, and his teammates again ready to do their utmost to serve him at every opportunity, it's going to take a great team to stop them extending their golden era for a little while longer.

Jason Pettigrove
Jason PettigroveFlashscore