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We’ve arrived at the last four of the Australian Open. Friday brings the men’s semi-finals from Melbourne Park, with title hopefuls Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev going head-to-head in a winner-takes-all showdown. The Spaniard is widely fancied to progress to the deciding match, making the German an interesting play for bettors seeking the value.
On this page, we focus on the other semi-final pairing, as Novak Djokovic meets Jannik Sinner in a match that’s sure to live up to the hype. Italian Sinner is the defending champion and holds high hopes of snatching back-to-back titles. To stand any chance of successfully defending the trophy, Jannik must defeat ten-time Australian Open champion Djokovic.
Which player will win Friday’s match and book a slot in the main event? Leading online bookmakers offer pre-match and live betting odds on what’s left of the Australian Open, including Djokovic v Sinner. Tennis fans and gamblers can predict the match-winner, have their say on the set betting, play the totals and more. Here are our three big-match bets.
Djokovic v Sinner tips
Sinner 3-0 Djokovic @ 1.72 (bet365)
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Match winner - Jannik Sinner
Novak Djokovic enters the semi-final of a tournament he has made his own in recent years. The Serbian boasts a record 24 Majors, and sets the standard at the Australian Open. Novak has won this Grand Slam more times than any other, collecting ten titles. That’s difficult to ignore, but his most recent Australian Open win was three years ago.
Djokovic is 38 years old, meaning he’s fast-approaching the end of his career, and critics suggest he’s past his prime. He was rather fortunate to squeeze past fifth seed Lorenzo Musetti in the quarter-finals. The Italian led by two sets to love when he was forced to retire from the match due to injury. The relief on Novak’s face was plain for all to see.
Looking at how his opponent played last time out, we see Sinner hammered American Ben Shelton in straight sets. The scoreboard at the end of that match read 6-3, 6-4, 6-4, telling the story of a one-sided contest. The betting has Sinner as a hot favourite to beat Djokovic; he’s also the man to topple in the outright market. Sinner’s form makes him a smart play here.
Tip: Sinner win @ 1.07 (bet365)
Bet explanation: If Sinner beats Djokovic, you beat the bookies.
Total sets - three
After taking sides in the match-winner betting market, we move into the Sinner v Djokovic gambling specials. When analysing the Djokovic v Sinner head-to-head stats, we see the Italian appears to have the measure of his world-famous rival. The pair have met nine times already, with Jannik boasting five wins against the four of Djokovic. We're betting on him to build on that margin.
The stats available on the Flashscore app show momentum lies with the younger man, and I don’t expect that to end this weekend. Sinner and Djokovic met three times last year in competitive action, with Sinner winning every time. The Italian won 3-0 in the French Open on clay before securing another landslide on the grass courts of Wimbledon.
The most recent game ended 2-0 in Sinner’s favour at the Six Kings Slam in Saudi Arabia last October. The last time Djokovic won a set against Sinner was in the 2024 Six Kings Slam, with the scores ending 2-1 to the form player. That run shows a strong trend of three-set matches when Sinner and Djokovic go toe-to-toe. That’s good enough for us.
Tip: Total sets - 3 @ 1.66 (bet365)
Bet explanation: The winning player isn’t important here. If the match ends after the third set, you’ll secure a handy profit.
Set betting - Sinner 3-0 Djokovic
Having suggested two singles on Jannik Sinner to win the match and a total of three sets, we move to our third and final selection. We’re combining our picks in a double, backing Sinner 3-0 Djokovic in the set betting. This bet comes with the best odds of the three, and gives us a good chance of making a profit worth celebrating before the final in Melbourne this weekend.
As mentioned, the updated head-to-head stats show a bet on Sinner 3-0 Djokovic would’ve made you a profit in the previous two meetings in the extended format. Jannik was also in complete control in Saudi Arabia last time. Switching to the favourite’s form at the Australian Open, he made light work of Ben Shelton, winning 3-0 in perfect preparation for the semi.
In the Round of 16, Sinner beat fellow countryman Luciano Darderi 3-0. He exploded out of the traps that day, taking the first set 6-1, and the second set 6-3, before digging deep to complete the win with a 7-6 result. Sinner now faces a great of modern tennis and a living legend. He does so on a strong run of form with his rival lucky to have made it this far.
Tip: Sinner 3-0 Djokovic @ 1.72 (bet365)
Bet explanation: You need Jannik Sinner to beat Novak Djokovic by three sets to love to win this bet.
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The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.