Sinner seeking Sunshine Double & Lehecka a monumental upset in Miami

Ondřej Jirásek

Jannik Sinner will be the huge favorite in the final.MAURICIO PAIZ / NURPHOTO / NURPHOTO VIA AFP

Sunday's Miami Masters final puts everything on the line. World No. 2 Jannik Sinner enters as the overwhelming favourite, standing just one victory away from a historic Sunshine Double, but a red-hot Jiri Lehecka is ready to play the spoiler. Can the Czech underdog pull off a monumental upset and emulate Jakub Mensik's miracle run from last year, or will Sinner's clinical dominance prove too much?

Match news and form

Jiri Lehecka did not have the best start to the season and arrived at the Miami Masters on the back of a heavy defeat to Sebastian Baez in the opening round at Indian Wells. However, he has turned things around impressively at a venue where he has historically struggled, building momentum with each round.

He claimed a notable win over Taylor Fritz and then delivered one of his best performances in recent times in the semi-finals, dismantling the in-form Arthur Fils 6-2, 6-2 to reach the final. Notably, he has yet to drop his serve even once this fortnight.

With this run, the 24-year-old Czech has secured the best Masters result of his career and is set to reach a new career-high ranking next Monday, currently sitting at No. 14 in the live rankings. It marks a significant turnaround after he slipped out of the top 20 earlier this season following a poor start and a loss of points in previous tournaments.

He will now aim to continue his nation’s success at the Miami Masters, where his compatriot Jakub Mensik won the title last year, although repeating that feat will be a far tougher challenge for Lehecka.

For Jannik Sinner, it has been business as usual as he produced yet another straight-sets win, defeating Alexander Zverev 6-3, 7-6 - much like their meeting at Indian Wells - to reach the final with a perfect record.

He is now on a 16-match winning streak at Masters level, having claimed titles in Paris last year and Indian Wells recently. Even more impressively, he has not dropped a single set during this entire run.

Recently, by winning the Indian Wells Masters title, Sinner became the youngest player ever to win all high-profile hard-court events, further cementing his reputation as the best hard-court player in the game at the moment.

Still, there is more to achieve on this surface. He has only once won multiple hard-court Masters titles in a single season (three in 2024), and he has a strong opportunity to improve on that record.

By winning Sunday’s final, he can also become the first men's player since Roger Federer in 2017 to claim the Sunshine Double.

Head-to-head

Sinner leads 4-0. The Italian has thoroughly dominated this match-up, winning all four meetings and all nine sets played, not conceding more than four games in eight of those sets.

Stats & facts

This is the biggest final of Lehecka’s career, and his win–loss record in tour-level finals stands at 2-4, with both titles coming against players ranked outside the top 50.

Lehecka is 6-13 against top-five players in his career.

Sinner has not lost a final to any player other than Carlos Alcaraz since 2023.

The Italian holds a 1-2 record in finals at the Miami Masters.

Betting analysis

A massive challenge awaits Lehecka here, as Sinner arrives in red-hot form.

Over the past two years, no player other than Alcaraz has managed to beat him in a title-deciding match. Moreover, no player has gone on to win a tournament featuring both Sinner and Alcaraz since the 2024 Madrid Masters.

This has consistently been a comfortable matchup for Sinner, and nothing suggests that will change here. Expect him to deliver another dominant performance, with a straight-sets win looking the most likely outcome.