Can the Boston Bruins keep dominating with their perfect line combinations?

Some may have felt the Bruins were already a very good team last season, having accumulated 100 points. However, the underlying numbers told a different story: at five-on-five, they were among the worst teams in the league.

That has not been the case this season. Quite the opposite.

19 points from 13 games and first place in the Atlantic Division represent an excellent start to the ongoing season. So, what is behind it?

1. Experienced centers are making a difference

There is a reason that center is often considered the most important position in hockey. Fraser Minten already proved last season that he belongs in the NHL. However, it was still his first full season, and he finished with 35 points.

This season, he has already recorded 10 points in 13 games and is driving Boston’s second line, flanked by Marat Khusnutdinov and Morgan Geekie.

Matthew Poitras has also become an important, if less prominent, part of the lineup. He began the season as a healthy scratch, but once he got his opportunity, he made it count. He now anchors the fourth line at center.

Averaging just 10:15 of ice time per game may not be ideal for the development of a 22-year-old forward, but there is no denying that the fourth line is doing its job.

In modern hockey, having all four lines contribute is essential, particularly for a team hoping to make a deep playoff run.

Boston have also had to recognize that Elias Lindholm is not a first-line centre, where he started this season. He has gradually moved down to the third line, where he has been joined on the wing by rookie James Hagens, who was developed as a center during his youth.

That adjustment has made a noticeable difference. During transitions through the neutral zone, Hagens often takes on the role of the middle-lane forward, while Lindholm rotates out to the wing.

Given that Boston do not have a clear-cut first-line center, the coaching staff need to compensate by surrounding him with the best possible linemates. Pavel Zacha has therefore been paired with John-Jason Peterka and Pastrnak.

2. All four lines are clicking

Boston’s third and fourth lines have already logged more than 50 minutes together at five-on-five. The sample size for the TOP6 remains relatively small, so those numbers should be treated with caution.

Nevertheless, the performances of all four lines suggest that the combinations are working - at least for now.

Every line has been outplaying its opponents, and the results are reflected in the actual goal numbers, too.

Each line has conceded just one goal so far. Pastrnak's and Lindholm's lines, meanwhile, have each been on the ice for four goals scored. Poitras' line has contributed three goals, while the second line currently sits at an even 1-1 goal differential.

The caveat is sample size. Line combinations can look outstanding over a handful of games before the numbers eventually settle. Still, the early signs are promising.

3. Offensive-zone faceoffs used to maximize Boston's stars

Coaches are always looking for ways to put their best players in positions to succeed. Marco Sturm is doing exactly that.

At five-on-five, when the Bruins have an offensive-zone faceoff, Pastrnak, Peterka and Charlie McAvoy are given by far the greatest share of the opportunities. Their figures currently sit around 60%.

Excluding their linemates Zacha and Hampus Lindholm, the next player on the list is Elias Lindholm at 51.6%.

The logic is straightforward: starting in the offensive zone gives Boston’s most dangerous players an immediate opportunity to create scoring chances without first having to work the puck through the neutral zone.

It is a relatively simple adjustment, but one that can make a meaningful difference over the course of a season. By maximizing the number of offensive-zone starts for their most productive players, the Bruins are giving themselves a better chance of turning possession into goals.

4. A major improvement at five-on-five

As mentioned earlier, the Bruins struggled in this game situation last season. Their 46.8% share of expected goals ranked fifth-worst in the NHL.

After 13 games this season, that figure has climbed to 52.7% - a significant improvement that currently ranks 12th in the league.

A major factor has been Boston’s improved play through the neutral zone. When Pastrnak’s line is not on the ice, the Bruins appear quicker through this area of the rink than they were last season. Young players such as Minten, Hagens and Poitras have also brought valuable composure on the puck, using their skill to help initiate offensive sequences.

Rather than simply dumping the puck into the offensive zone and chasing it, Boston are increasingly looking to enter with possession whenever possible. Credit goes to the coaching staff for encouraging this approach.

The improvement is also evident in the quality of the chances they create. Last season, the Bruins generated 2.61 expected goals for per 60 minutes at five-on-five. This season, that figure has risen to 3.06.

That is a substantial increase in offensive production at even strength.

The distinction matters. A team can score more goals simply because its shooting percentage improves, but generating more expected goals suggests it is creating better chances in the first place.

For Boston, that is an encouraging sign that the improvement is rooted in the way they play, rather than merely in short-term finishing luck.

5. Swayman and McAvoy are delivering at an elite level

Strong forward lines alone are not enough to succeed in the NHL. For Boston to have any realistic chance of achieving something significant this season, they need outstanding performances from Jeremy Swayman and McAvoy. So far, they have delivered.

The American goaltender has ranked among the league’s elite for several years, and he is making another strong case for that status. With 8.2 goals saved above expected, he currently ranks fourth among NHL goaltenders.

McAvoy, meanwhile, missed Boston’s first six games of the season while serving a suspension.

In his seven games since returning, he has been outstanding. He is averaging 25 minutes of ice time per game and has immediately established himself as a dominant presence. His 62.3% share of expected goals at five-on-five is compelling evidence of his impact.

The actual goal numbers reinforce that impression: Boston have scored six goals and conceded three with McAvoy on the ice.

His influence goes beyond those numbers. McAvoy is crucial to Boston’s ability to move the puck out of their own zone, transition through the neutral zone and establish possession in the offensive end. His return has given the Bruins another level of control, particularly at five-on-five.

Regression is coming, but should Boston be worried?

If all of the factors outlined above continue to work throughout the season, the Bruins are very likely to make the playoffs.

However, there is an important caveat: Boston are currently riding an exceptionally high PDO. Across all game situations, their PDO stands at 107.16, a level that is unlikely to be sustainable over a full season. Some regression is almost inevitable.

PDO is the sum of a team's shooting percentage and save percentage, expressed on a scale where 100 represents the combined league-average baseline. Sustained figures well above 100 typically indicate that a team is benefiting from unusually strong finishing, goaltending, or both.

For Boston, that means the results may cool off as the season progresses. Their winning percentage could fall even if their underlying performances remain strong.

But in the context of their improved five-on-five play and the encouraging advanced statistics, regression should not necessarily be a cause for major concern. If the Bruins continue to generate quality chances, control play and receive contributions from all four lines, they should remain competitive even when their PDO normalizes.

The biggest potential concern would be a decline in Swayman's performance. Boston's current success relies in part on having an elite goaltender capable of making the difference in close games. If he stops performing at that level, the team's margin for error will shrink considerably.

Still, Swayman has established himself as one of the league's top goaltenders over the last seven seasons. The only notable exception in that period came during a contract dispute that saw him miss the entire training camp.

For now, the Bruins have plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Their line combinations are working, their five-on-five game has improved significantly, and their key players are delivering.

The real question is no longer whether Boston can compete. It is whether they can maintain this level of play once the inevitable regression arrives.