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Runaway Allsvenskan leaders with youth on their side: Opta's data on Sirius

Sirius players celebrate an Isak Bjerkebo (centre) goal
Sirius players celebrate an Isak Bjerkebo (centre) goalTT News Agency, TT News Agency / Alamy / Profimedia

Nine points clear at the top of Allsvenskan is unfamiliar territory for Sirius, the side from Uppsala who have never won a major trophy. With 10 wins and two draws from their first 12 games, they will be hoping it's not 'unlucky number 13' when they head to Elfsborg this afternoon (19th July).

But this year's Swedish surprise package, following in the footsteps of Mjallby in 2025, have been given something of a boost ahead of their round 13 match in Boras - the backing of the Opta supercomputer.

A nine-point advantage over second-placed Hammarby with 40% of the season played gives Sirius an 84.8% chance of winning a maiden title, according to Opta's data. The table below shows the supercomputer's results ahead of round 13, but the numbers for the top sides would have changed only marginally, given that GAIS are the only side among the top six to have played so far (ahead of Sunday 19th's fixtures).

Each sides' chances of finishing in different positions in Allsvenskan
Each sides' chances of finishing in different positions in AllsvenskanOpta

Sirius are in complete control of their own destiny, according to these figures, with only Djurgarden (3.6%) and last season's top two, Hammarby (7.3%) and Mjallby (1.8%), given better than a one in one hundred chance of winning the league. Mjallby's draw with Vasteras on Friday 17th means their number would have lowered further.

Naturally, a couple of bad results can drastically alter Sirius' chances, but Opta believes only a spectacular drop-off - of which there has been no sign so far - will prevent Sirius from at least picking up a medal. It is already a remarkable season for a club in just their 14th Allsvenskan season, having never finished higher than seventh.

A youthful squad with a dose of experience

The goal-a-game season that Robbie Ure is having has clearly been a blessing for Sirius this season, but with the Scottish striker attracting interest from clubs in Europe's top five leagues, there is no guarantee Blasvart will be able to rely on his services for all 30 matches this season.

Fortunately for Sirius fans, Andreas Engelmark boasts a side not lacking in attacking talent that still has time to improve.

Sirius players ages and minutes played this season
Sirius players ages and minutes played this seasonOpta

Engelmark has given plenty of minutes to players yet to hit the peak ages of 24-29, including Ure and the league's second-highest scorer, Isak Bjerkebo. In fact, none of the Sirius attackers to have played in the league this season are above the age of 24.

That's a call that's paying off for the head coach, with Sirius the current top scorers in Allsvenskan with one or even two games in hand over some rivals, getting to the top of the scoring charts thanks to some free-flowing attacking football that only youthful exuberance seems to bring.

Further back, there are some more experienced legs in the team, though defenders Henrik Castegren and Simon Sandberg are the only players aged 30 or over to have kicked a ball in Sirius' remarkable campaign.

Even in goal, Engelmark is happy to give relative youth a chance, with 23-year-old goalkeeper David Celic playing every minute thus far.

Two thirds of the 21 players used in the league thus far are still to hit their peak years, and with an average age of 24 years and 122 days, Sirius are nearly halfway to disproving once and for all that "you can't win anything with kids."

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