Belgium face difficult striker decision in World Cup clash against Senegal

De Ketelaere or Lukaku? The difference is significant. After a season plagued by injuries and just 64 minutes played in all competitions with Naples, 'Big Rom' rescued Belgium at the start of their match against Egypt by forcing Mohamed Hany’s own goal just moments after coming on.

Despite his lack of match fitness, Lukaku, who warned his manager he wasn’t fit enough to play more than half an hour, was named in the starting line-up.

Against Iran, the Red Devils’ all-time top scorer played an uninspired 73 minutes, prompting Garcia to restore De Ketelaere to the side against New Zealand.

At the end of the group stage, Belgium were unbeaten and top of their group. Nevertheless, they face Senegal in the round of 32. Now more than ever, the question of who leads the line is crucial.

Two radically different profiles

In Belgium’s opening match, De Ketelaere played 66 minutes but touched the ball just five times in the box. Lukaku, who replaced him, managed three touches - evidence that Belgium’s entire attacking set-up was lacking.

While playing with a false nine does create space, you need enough players making forward runs to get into the box by other means, especially from attacking midfield.

De Ketelaere’s heat map shows his activity across the final third, with 14 successful passes out of 19 in that area... but only three out of four going towards goal.

Overall, his stats were solid: nine duels won out of 13, including four out of four in the air, three interceptions, and three recoveries. However, he only delivered one key pass and never attempted a shot.

Against Iran, De Ketelaere stayed on the bench, raising questions about Garcia’s tactical consistency. Lukaku played 73 minutes, touching the ball nine times in the box.

While he was useful in link-up play (six out of eight) and forward passes in the final third (10 out of 15), he struggled in duels (three out of nine) and had just one shot. Certainly not his best game, but could it have been otherwise? 

In this context, Lukaku seems more like an impact substitute to be brought on after the second cooling break than a nailed-on starter.

His heat map, however, leaves no doubt about his area of influence: he is the complete opposite of De Ketelaere.

Is the match against New Zealand a true reflection of Belgium’s level? Against the weakest team in the group and with the pressure to win, the Red Devils took time to break the deadlock before pulling away in the second half.

De Ketelaere started again, while Lukaku played only five minutes.

Senegal, who scraped through thanks to a big win over Iraq (5-0) in their final group game, also need answers about their collective play, but their automatisms seem better developed - or at least more polished - in knockout matches.